Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. They composes two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
